Fed’s decision, Bank of Japan’s decision, and inflation data will be key events for crypto market through end of September

Ринки 11.09.2026    18:29

In the second half of September, the cryptocurrency market will be driven primarily by decisions from major central banks, U.S. consumer demand and inflation data, as well as a major quarterly expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options.

The main event will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 15–16. The interest rate decision will be announced on September 16. This meeting is particularly important because, along with the decision, the Fed will publish updated economic forecasts and the so-called “dot plot”—the members’ expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.

Anticipation surrounding the meeting has intensified sharply following the release of August’s inflation data. Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core inflation came in at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. The day before, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 0.4% increase month-over-month and a 5.4% jump year-over-year.

Against this backdrop, the market sharply raised expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed. Throughout September 11, futures priced in the probability of such a decision at approximately 82–87%, whereas just a few days before the CPI release, the Reuters consensus among economists had anticipated that rates would remain at 3.50–3.75%.

For cryptocurrencies, a rate hike is traditionally a negative factor: it increases the yield on dollar-denominated assets, raises the cost of borrowed capital, and reduces investors’ risk appetite. However, Bitcoin’s reaction will depend not only on the decision itself but also on the Fed’s comments. If the Fed signals that the September hike is a one-off, the market may react much more calmly than if it were seen as the start of a new tightening cycle.

U.S. retail sales data for August, also set to be released on September 16, will take on added significance ahead of the meeting. In July, the figure fell for the first time in nine months. A strong recovery in consumer spending could bolster the case for higher rates, whereas weak sales might somewhat ease investors’ concerns about further policy tightening. The release date has been confirmed by the U.S. Census Bureau. (

On the same day, the BLS will release the August import and export price indices. Typically, this indicator has a much smaller impact on the market than the CPI; however, in the current environment, investors will be closely watching for signs that high prices for energy and imported goods are feeding into U.S. inflation.

The next key factor will be the Bank of Japan. Its meeting is scheduled for September 17–18. According to a Reuters survey, the central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, a 31-year high.

For Bitcoin, the Bank of Japan’s decision is important due to the carry trade mechanism. For many years, investors have borrowed cheap yen and invested it in higher-yielding, riskier assets. Rising interest rates in Japan and a strengthening yen make such strategies less attractive and could lead to a reduction in leveraged positions across global markets, including cryptocurrencies. Concerns about the unwinding of the yen carry trade have repeatedly been a source of heightened volatility in risky assets.

Another potential source of sharp price movements will be September 25, when Deribit will see a major quarterly expiration of cryptocurrency options. Based on calculations using the exchange’s open interest as of September 9, approximately $14.4 billion in Bitcoin options and another roughly $1.8 billion in Ethereum options were outstanding as of that date. About 41.5% of the total open interest in Bitcoin options was concentrated in the September expiration.

The expiration itself does not determine the market’s direction; however, such a large volume of contracts has the potential to increase short-term volatility. A study published in the September issue of *Finance Research Letters* also points to statistically significant intraday reversals in Bitcoin during option expiration periods, particularly when market makers hold large positions.

On September 29, the market will receive the August JOLTS report on the number of job openings in the U.S. Following a strong August jobs report—which showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.1%—the state of the labor market has become yet another argument for advocates of a more hawkish Fed policy. An unexpectedly high level of job openings could put pressure back on Bitcoin through rising U.S. Treasury yields.

But the most important data following the Fed meeting will be released on September 30. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will simultaneously publish the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and data on Americans’ personal income and spending for August. It is this report that contains the PCE price index—the key inflation gauge used by the Fed.

If the PCE indicates rising inflationary pressure following the CPI and PPI, expectations of additional rate hikes before the end of the year may intensify. For Bitcoin, such a scenario would mean continued pressure from high bond yields and a strong dollar. A weaker PCE, on the other hand, could bring back market expectations that monetary tightening is coming to an end.

The situation is complicated by rising oil prices. On September 11, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds approached 5%, its highest level since 2023, as high oil prices intensified fears of a new wave of inflation.

In addition, on September 10, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points: the deposit rate will be 2.50% starting September 16. The ECB directly linked the decision to sustained inflationary pressures, including those stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy costs.

Thus, the second half of September is shaping up to be a period of heightened macroeconomic risk for the crypto market. Over the next two weeks, investors will successively see the Fed’s decision, a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan, a major quarterly expiration of crypto options, U.S. labor market data, and the key PCE inflation index.

In the base case scenario, the cost of global liquidity remains the key factor for Bitcoin. If the Fed and the Bank of Japan simultaneously tighten policy, and U.S. inflation remains high, pressure on risky assets may persist. However, if the Fed signals that rate hikes are nearing the end of the cycle and the PCE shows a slowdown in prices, the market may find a reason to rebound in late September.

The key indicator following each release will be not only the data itself but also the reaction of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar: if they continue to rise, it will be more difficult for cryptocurrencies to regain ground, whereas a decline in yields and the dollar could draw capital back into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other risky assets.

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