Prediction markets set new record: weekend trading volume exceeded $5.8 bln
17.09.2026 15:04
Global prediction markets continue to grow rapidly and are becoming one of the most prominent segments at the intersection of cryptocurrencies, trading, and sports betting. During the first weekend of the new NFL season, the total trading volume on the largest prediction markets reached at least $5.83 billion, according to data from Aldrin Research cited by Barron’s.
The bulk of the trading volume came from the U.S.-regulated platform Kalshi—about $4.89 billion over the weekend.
On Sunday alone, the total volume of prediction markets amounted to approximately $3.12 billion, and Kalshi set its own daily record of $2.433 billion.
On the blockchain platform Polymarket, trading volume on Sunday totaled about $404 million.
Sports events were the main driver of growth. According to researchers’ estimates, about 91% of weekend activity was related to sports and combination contracts.
At the same time, prediction markets are gradually expanding far beyond elections and sporting events. Contracts on interest rates, inflation, commodity prices, cryptocurrencies, and macroeconomic indicators are already being actively traded on these platforms.
The European regulator ESMA has taken note of the sector’s growth. In July, the agency noted that some event contracts may fall under existing restrictions on binary options, while certain products may simultaneously be considered bets by national regulators.
In its September risk review, ESMA also pointed to potential issues related to the manipulation of prediction markets and the use of insider information.
Thus, prediction markets are following a path similar to that of the early cryptocurrency market: rapid growth in trading volume is gradually attracting the attention of traditional financial regulators.
Теги: Polymarket cryptocurrency Kalshi Prediction market trading Переглядів: 75