Bitcoin Is Becoming Less Volatile - Long-Term Holders Are Increasingly Shaping Market Structure
14.09.2026 11:27
Bitcoin’s volatility remains at historically low levels, despite significant fluctuations in inflows to cryptocurrency ETFs, shifting expectations regarding Fed interest rates, and sharp price movements on individual trading days.
Analysis by Glassnode shows that one of the most significant factors behind the decline in monthly realized volatility has been the increase in the share of Bitcoin held by long-term owners. This metric explains changes in volatility better than the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization, open interest in derivatives, funding rates, or trading volume, according to The Block.
In other words, it is no longer just the size of the market that matters, but also the structure of Bitcoin’s ownership.
Bitcoin, which previously moved largely between speculative investors and traders, is increasingly concentrated among long-term holders, ETFs, companies, and other participants who trade much less frequently.
This can reduce the number of coins constantly involved in trading and lower the market’s sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in demand.
At the same time, more than 71% of Bitcoin’s total supply is currently in profit, according to data cited by Bitfinex analysts.
This figure is approaching the historical average of approximately 74.7%. Analysts note that a sustained move above this level in previous cycles has often coincided with the market’s transition from a bear market to a more stable bull market.
At the same time, a high proportion of coins in profit has a dual effect. On the one hand, it reflects an improvement in the financial position of Bitcoin holders. On the other hand, it creates a potential supply that could enter the market as prices continue to rise, as investors begin to take profits.
On September 12, Bitcoin is trading around $77,000, remaining well below its 2025 all-time high.
At the same time, the market’s infrastructure itself is changing. Spot ETFs have become one of the largest channels of institutional demand, public companies are building multibillion-dollar Bitcoin reserves, and the share of long-term holdings is increasing.
This is gradually bringing Bitcoin closer to traditional financial assets in terms of investor structure, although the cryptocurrency’s absolute volatility remains significantly higher than that of most major stock indices or government bonds.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the current situation is still more consistent with consolidation with upside potential than with a confirmed new bullish breakout.
Thus, the changing composition of Bitcoin holders may gradually alter the familiar pattern of cryptocurrency cycles. If the majority of the supply continues to be held by ETFs, companies, and long-term investors, future cycles may become less volatile, although it is still too early to completely rule out major price movements for Bitcoin.