Cryptocurrency market ends first week of September on uptrend - overview

04.09.2026    17:29

The cryptocurrency market ends the first week of September on an uptrend after significant volatility at the start of the week: Bitcoin returned above $81,000, Ethereum approached $2,500, and the total market capitalization rose to approximately $2.81 trillion. The main driver of this movement was a shift in expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy.

According to CoinGecko data as of midday on September 4, Bitcoin was trading around $81,000, Ethereum around $2,500, XRP at $1.44–1.45, and Solana around $104. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stood at approximately $2.81 trillion, having increased by about 4.5% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin accounted for about 58% of the market capitalization, while Ethereum accounted for about 11%.

The week started off much weaker. On August 31, Bitcoin was trading around $78,600; on September 1–2, it fell to around $77,000, but then rebounded sharply. On the night of September 4, the price rose to approximately $82,200—a more than three-month high. Thus, compared to the start of the week, BTC is up about 3%, although the change over the past seven days remains significantly more modest—about 1%. (CoinGecko)

The main catalyst for the new rally was a statement by Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller. Speaking on September 3, he said he was prepared to support keeping the interest rate at its current level if incoming data confirmed a further slowdown in inflation. At the same time, Waller did not rule out a rate hike if August inflation picks up again. Following his remarks, pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields eased, which supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum showed more subdued performance over the course of the week. After reaching a level of around $2,470 on August 31, ETH fell below $2,400, then recovered to approximately $2,500. XRP, after dipping to $1.35, rose again to about $1.45, while Solana climbed above $100. On a seven-day basis, Ethereum and XRP are roughly flat, while Solana is down about 3%.

U.S. spot ETFs remain a separate factor supporting Bitcoin. After a net outflow of about $236.5 million on September 1, the funds received about $101 million on September 2, and preliminary data for September 3 already indicates approximately $277 million in inflows. In August, the cumulative inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs was estimated at approximately $3.52 billion. However, capital flows remain volatile and do not yet indicate a return to a sustained series of daily purchases.

The situation in the Ethereum market is less clear-cut. On September 2, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $48 million, breaking a streak of 12 trading sessions with inflows during which the funds attracted about $1.62 billion. This partly explains ETH’s weaker performance relative to Bitcoin in early September.

Among major and mid-cap cryptocurrencies, Zcash stood out as the most notable exception this week: according to CoinDesk, as of September 4, the coin had gained about 20% over seven days and about 15% over the past 24 hours. Hyperliquid also significantly outperformed most major crypto assets.

In the coming days, the market will remain primarily dependent on U.S. macroeconomic data. On September 4, the U.S. Department of Labor is set to release the August jobs report, and on September 11, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. These figures will be particularly important ahead of the Fed meeting on September 15–16. The official BLS calendar confirms the release of August labor market data on September 4 and the CPI on September 11.

The base case scenario for Bitcoin in the near term is that it will remain within a range of approximately $76,000–$83,000. The $76,000–$77,000 zone acted as support several times earlier this week, while the $82,000 level has already become the nearest resistance. A sustained move above $82,000–$83,000, combined with continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, could pave the way toward the $85,000–$88,000 range. In the event of strong U.S. inflation or labor market data—which would once again increase the likelihood of a Fed rate hike—a pullback to the $76,000–$78,000 range would become the most likely scenario. A break below this support level would significantly worsen the short-term technical picture.

For Ethereum, the $2,400–2,550 range remains key. A confident break above $2,550 could allow the market to test the $2,700–2,800 range; however, this would require not only a rise in Bitcoin but also a resumption of steady capital inflows into the Ethereum ETF. If sentiment deteriorates, a pullback below $2,400 would once again bring the $2,250–2,300 range into focus.

Thus, the first week of September has not yet become a full-fledged continuation of August’s strong rally. The market has instead entered a phase of testing the levels it has reached: Bitcoin appears stronger than most major altcoins, institutional demand remains steady, but capital flows through ETFs are volatile. The main drivers for the crypto market over the next two weeks will be U.S. inflation, the Fed’s decision, and Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $82,000.

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