Ukraine trade balance reaches USD 4.1 bln surplus in 2015

Ukraine traded with a surplus on goods and services of USD 4.1 bln in 2015, vs. USD 3.4 bln a year ago, UkrStat reported on Feb 15. The balance on services worsened somewhat to USD 4.4 bln surplus from USD 5.2 bln a year ago. At the same time, the trade balance on goods reached a surplus (USD 633 mln) compared to a USD 527 mln deficit in 2014. The general balance on goods and services was adjusted downward for USD 1.0 bln of tolling operations.

The trade balance on goods improved due to faster imports contraction (-31.1% yoy, to USD 37.5 bln) vs. exports decline (-29.3% yoy to USD 38.1 bln). Imports have been falling because of metals (-40% yoy), machinery (-28% yoy), energy bill (-27% yoy) and chemicals (-26% yoy). Those four items were responsible for 59% of the USD 16.9 bln imports decline. Exports have shrunk due to mineral products (-49% yoy), metals (-38% yoy) and machinery (-30% yoy).

The trade balance on services worsened primarily due to a 14% yoy decline in the export of transportation services, which shaved off USD 873 mln from exports proceeds.

Exports of goods and services to Russia plunged 41% yoy throughout the year. Exports of goods and services to the EU fell 24% yoy. Non-energy imports (including services) contracted 30% yoy in 2015.

Alexander Paraschiy: Sharp hryvnia weakening as well as a falling energy bill in 2015 were the main reasons for the strengthened trade balance amid falling exports proceeds. At the same time, we anticipate somewhat different developments in 2016. In fact, we do not anticipate any improvements on exports given sluggish resource prices in the global market. Also we do not anticipate any recovery in energy imports in light of falling oil prices and poor economic performance. However, we expect a strengthening of non-energy imports due to abolished additional import duties starting Jan. 1. Against this backdrop, we project the trade balance on goods falling to a USD 2.1 bln deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) and the general balance on good and services will narrow to USD 1.0 bln surplus in 2016.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал