NBU reduces expectation for IMF loans this year

26 января 2018 года
Конкорд Капитал

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced in a Jan. 25 press release it now expects IMF loans of around USD 2 bln this year, after previously estimating USD 3.5 bln. The IMF financing, coupled with expected loans from the EU and World Bank, will help to boost the country’s international reserves to USD 20.5 bln by end-2018 from USD 18.8 bln at end-2017, according to NBU projections. To secure these loans, which are needed to help make external debt repayments of USD 16 bln for 2018-20, the government should progress in structural reforms needed for maintaining macroeconomic stability and ongoing IMF cooperation, the NBU said.

The next IMF loan tranche for Ukraine should arrive by April, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 25. "Likely, I'm crossing my fingers that the mission will visit us by April and we'll have the next tranche," Poroshenko said. The same day, Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk estimated the next tranche arriving in May.

The NBU is planning to propose at a meeting with Finance Ministry officials the initiation of a new IMF loan program starting in 2019, when the current External Funds Facility expires, acting NBU head Yakiv Smoliy told a Jan. 25 press briefing. "We haven't started talks with the IMF, but we are already thinkng about when it's possible," he said regarding the new loan program. Such a program is necessary considering foreign debt payments will peak in 2019-20 while the current program expoerts in 1Q19.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Besides its more conservative projections for IMF financing, the NBU also expects less reserves, which had been previously projected at USD 22.2 bln at end-2018. Despite some recent progress in talks between Ukraine and the IMF, we don't expect Ukraine will get more than USD 1 bln from the IMF this year. We believe that money arriving in April or May is realistic.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал


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