Volatility returns to Ukraine foreign currency market

Volatility returns to Ukraine foreign currency market



9 липня 2015 года
Конкорд Капитал

The U.S. dollar strengthened 2.5% to UAH 22.35/USD (from UAH 21.8/USD at the start of trading session) by the middle of the July 8 ForEx trading session at Kyiv’s interbank market. Trading calmed by the session’s end and the U.S. dollar cooled to UAH 21.9/USD. Since Friday, the average USD interbank exchange rate has strengthened 4.3% to UAH 22/USD as of July 8 from UAH 21/USD. Similar tendencies were reflected at the cash market. Meanwhile, commercial banks increased on July 8 the price for U.S. dollars for individual entities (as opposed to legal entities, under Ukrainian law) to above UAH 24/USD, compared to UAH 22.9/USD in the prior day’s session.

Alexander Paraschiy: The continued speculation about a potential default on Ukrainian debt are the main factors driving volatility at the ForEx over the last few days. Poor confidence in authorities and the negative perceptions surrounding the potential default consequences have made the public nervous, and as a consequence, have pushed Ukrainians towards making foreign currency purchases.

What’s more, Ukrainians have a habit of anticipating crises at the start of autumn, which means we can hardly anticipate calm at the ForEx to return in August. Against the backdrop of approaching local elections, ongoing debt talks and anticipated resumption of hryvnia printing in 2H15 for fiscal needs, we anticipate the hryvnia weakening to UAH 23/USD by the year end, assuming no debt moratorium is announced.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
Другая макроэкономика от Конкорд Капитал


Компании

все компании