Ukraine GDP falls 2.7% yoy in 4Q12, rises 0.2% in FY12

Макроэкономика 31.01.2013 Ukraine’s GDP fell 2.7% yoy in 4Q12, concluding the year at 0.2% growth, according to an UkrStat provisional estimate released on Jan. 30. Nominal GDP reached UAH 1400 bln (USD 175 bln, up 6.4% yoy) in 2012. Alexander Paraschiy: The preliminary 2012 numbers are below our projected estimate of 0.6% yoy. The main growth contributor was private consumption, which was fueled by double-digit growth in real wages (+14.4% yoy in 2012). Net exports were the main drag, falling 5.5% by our estimates on the heels of a metal exports slump (-14.6% yoy), declining chemical exports (-3.1% yoy ) and slowing growth of machinery exports (down to 11.7% from 29.5% a year ago). We project 1.6% GDP growth for 2013.