Fixygen's February forecast for cryptocurrency market

31.01.2026    17:18

February looks like a month of “macro + flows,” where the direction will be determined not so much by individual crypto news as by a combination of factors: expectations regarding interest rates, risk appetite, ETF behavior, and derivatives volatility.

Fixygen offers several scenarios for how the situation could unfold.

Base scenario (most likely)

Sideways market with increased volatility: Bitcoin is trying to recover after January's sell-off, but is facing selling pressure as it approaches strong levels (including around $90,000). In this scenario, the “swings” will continue until there is a clear signal regarding liquidity — either through macro data or a sustained reversal of ETF flows.

Positive scenario

The market will get a “window” for growth if two conditions are met simultaneously:

sustainable net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs return (this reduces dependence on derivative demand);

macro policy becomes less tight, real yields fall, the dollar weakens, and the risk premium declines.

Then crypto could quickly recover from its late January slump, and altcoins could temporarily revive following BTC.

Negative scenario

If outflows from ETFs continue and macro expectations remain hawkish, pressure may return: the January episode showed how quickly the market unpacks when volatility and liquidations increase. In this case, February will be marked by the defense of support levels and investors' flight to cash/safe-haven assets.

Markers we recommend watching in February:

1) daily statistics on spot Bitcoin ETF flows (inflows/outflows);

2) the state of derivatives: open interest, funding rates, liquidation “flashes”;

3) the tone of the macro agenda and the reaction of yields/the dollar to key data for the month;

4) the stability of BTC after the sharp movements at the end of January (the market is testing whether “demand on dips” is ready to be systemic).

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