Stabilizes in 4Q15, a low-growth environment afterwards.

Stabilizes in 4Q15, a low-growth environment afterwards.



1 жовтня 2015 года
ICU

The economy is set to recover in seasonally adjusted and on-quarter terms since 4Q15, two quarters later than we had previously anticipated. However, the 2015 full-year contraction is still estimated at a bit more than 13% YoY. Next year, a 2.7% rebound in real GDP should occur followed by +2% yearly growth each year in 2017-18. In our view, it is an optimistic proposition, which made by Ukraine authorities and IFIs, that Ukraine's future real GDP growth rate stabilizes at around +4.0% YoY. Our base-case scenario instead envisages a more prudent forecast of growth stabilizing at +2.0% YoY. There are more details explaining that view in the section "Economic activity: recovery in 2H15, low-growth environment after" on page 20.

Источник: ICU

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