Hryvnia trades within authorities' range as market eyes capital controls ease

Hryvnia trades within authorities' range as market eyes capital controls ease



9 вересня 2015 года
ICU

The foreign exchange market in Ukraine remains tightly managed. While officials frequently talk of FX reserve accumulation as a prime target of their policymaking, their regime is more of a peg policy as they uphold FX rate stabilisation as the cornerstone of their current reforms agenda. However, these policies create false expectations among the economic agents, particularly as NBU officials increasingly talk of phasing out these capital controls that are disfavored by the business community. Rather, the perceived rate stabilization and unwinding of capital controls are populist-oriented moves that are unsustainable over the mid-term. As a result, the FX rate could be repriced again in 2016, and our analysis yields a fair value range of 25-30/USD by next year or at least six months from now.

Источник: ICU

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