Preliminary reading of 4Q real GDP

Preliminary reading of 4Q real GDP



18 лютого 2015 года
ICU

The official headline 4Q real GDP contracted 15.2% YoY and down 3.8% from the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms. Details will be published in the future. This information implied a 6.7% YoY contraction for full-year 2014. Our estimations of nominal GDP for 2014 amounted to UAH1,551bn or US$130bn in US dollar terms at market exchange rates, affecting the 60% debt to GDP covenant of the US$3bn Russian Eurobond originally due this December. This bond prospectus do not specify which convention it should follow while making the calculation -- either all in local currency or all in FX (US dollars). The former method routinely overstates the ratio especially when EM economy is affected by currency devaluations. The latter method provides a lower value for the ratio. Ukraine's public debt to GDP ratio as of end-2014 was 71% by the former method and 53.3% by the latter. A Russian official yesterday claimed (source Interfax) that his government does not intend to exercise an early redemption clause, acknowledging the lack of clarity of the covenant's wording in the prospectus.

Источник: ICU

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