Donbas ceasefire talks underway in Minsk

Donbas ceasefire talks underway in Minsk



13 лютого 2015 года
ICU

Last evening, the four leaders of Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia were holding talks for a cease fire in Donbas. While no details of the steps being negotiated have been revealed yet, the media conjectures that the new settlement will be based on the prior Minsk agreement. As negotiations continued into the late evening, an official statement could be announced this morning at the earliest. We anticipate some declaration of a hiatus at best. Ukraine needs the reprieve to concentrate on macroeconomic stabilization, re-arming its military and strengthening its defensive positions. Russia needs the time and goodwill to lobby the EU to remove its sanctions and get temporary relief from the economic pain of the acute macroeconomic adjustment that has been taking place since 2014. After this, however, we expect the Kremlin to resume its intention to reabsorb Ukraine by any means necessary. While the Kremlin is undoubtedly against Ukraine ever joining the EU, when Russia waged war, Ukrainians vociferously defended themselves. To force Ukraine into submission, the Kremlin needs to destabilize Ukraine economically to foment a popular revolt from inside the country. We expect that the Kremlin will resort to various means - propaganda, economic pressure, violence, refusing trade - to achieve this.

Источник: ICU

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