Ukraine industrial drops 0.5% yoy in December, annual result in the red



24 января 2018 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s industrial output dropped 0.5% yoy in December after November’s growth of 0.3% yoy, the State Statistics Service reported on Jan. 23. The decline in utilities and mining offset the upsurge in machinery, metallurgy, and chemicals. Utility production declined 13.3% yoy (from 6.4% yoy in November) and mining dropped 4.4% yoy (from 2.8% yoy). Machinery output grew 14.6% yoy (from 3.6% yoy in November), metallurgy improved 3.4% yoy (from 2.7% yoy) and chemicals rose 41.0% yoy (from 46.1% yoy).



Industrial output ended 2017 in the red at a 0.1% yoy loss. Annual manufacturing growth of 4.0% yoy was set off by declining utilities and mining, 6.5% yoy and 5.8% respectively.



Regionally, the deepest decline remained in the Ukraine-controlled part of Luhansk (-44.0% yoy), followed by Khmelnytsk (-17.3% yoy) and Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk (-16.2% yoy). Growth was strongest in the western regions of Ternopil (29.9% yoy growth), Chernivtsi (15.3% yoy), and Ivano-Frankivsk (12.0% yoy).



Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Output in December remained depressed by slowing extraction of coal (-12.0% yoy) and iron ore (-3.5% yoy), which continue to suffer from broken ties with occupied Donbas. Machinery is booming on the back of high investment demand and state orders. Metals are recovering slowly on the back of high export prices. As it turns out, we were a bit optimistic in projecting industrial growth at 0.4% yoy in 2017.



For 2018, we project strong industrial recovery of 4.6% yoy growth owing to strong export prices and a low comparative base. These results will be apparent as soon as February when the negative effect of the sharp fall in mining that had been observed since February 2017 will wear off.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал



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