Ukraine reserves drop 5.7% in June

Ukraine reserves drop 5.7% in June



8 липня 2013 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s gross international reserves dropped 5.7% (USD 1.4 bln) to USD 23.1 bln in June (2.6 months of future imports), according to NBU data released on July 5.



Alexander Paraschiy: A USD 1.0 bln redemption on Eurobonds was the main reason for the gross reserves decline. The Finance Ministry had been offsetting external redemptions with new Eurobond placements. However, access to external markets for Ukraine has been closed since May amidst QE3 tapering talks.



This new reality makes us revise our gross foreign reserves forecast down to USD 20.1 bln since we can hardly anticipate new Eurobonds by the summer’s end. Meanwhile, a USD 1.4 bln payment is due to the IMF by August 12. Still, our forecast presumes that at least some external funding will be available through September-November. Otherwise, gross reserves will fall to nearly USD 18 bln by the end of 2013, which by itself might trigger a speculative attack on the hryvnia.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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