Ukraine C/A deficit decreases to USD 677 mln yoy in April

Ukraine C/A deficit decreases to USD 677 mln yoy in April



30 травня 2013 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s April current account deficit declined to USD 677 mln, which is 31.1% lower than a year ago (USD 983 mln), according to NBU data released on May 29. A decline in imported goods (-7.9% yoy) vs. an exports increase (+3.0% yoy) was the main reason for the outcome. This time, exports benefited from 47.3% yoy growth in mineral products while imports fell in energy (-30.4% yoy) and machinery (-9.5% yoy).



The financial and capital accounts balance also improved yoy to USD 1.6 bln (USD 1.49 bln a year ago). A USD 1.25 bln Eurobonds placement was the main reason for the positive change.Net FDI demonstrated growth, surging more than four times to USD 417 mln from USD 93 mln a year ago. Individual cash demand for foreign currency remains low with USD 104 mln net outflow from the banking system. As a result, Ukraine’s general external financial balance (combined balances of C/A and financial account) was reported positive at USD 927 mln, enabling a USD 401 mln IMF repayment and USD 526 mln gross foreign reserves increase through the month.



Alexander Paraschiy: The April C/A results were much better than we anticipated. We did not count on a sudden shot of mineral exports and an ongoing deep energy imports decline. We are not inclined to see this unexpected external accounts success as a break in the current trend: mineral products are unlikely to become a new driver of export growth.



At the same time, we expect the authorities to stop cutting natural gas imports quite soon since gas stocks are almost exhausted and new replenishing is needed. Even so, we are lowering our 2013 C/A deficit estimate for 2013 to USD 15.1 bln (from USD 16.3 bln) due to the April results and the Ukraine’s declared intention to cut gas imports 17% yoy to 27.3 bcm in 2013.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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