Ukraine ups grain export 42% in 7M12/13, state limits wheat exports

Ukraine ups grain export 42% in 7M12/13, state limits wheat exports



6 лютого 2013 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukrainian traders exported 16.25 mmt of grain in the 2012/13 marketing year as of Feb. 3, the Agrarian Ministry reported. The amount represents 42% export growth yoy and is 70% of the full-year plan of 23.2 mmt (vs. 52% of the full-year amount being exported a year ago). Key export items in 7M12/13 were corn (7.95 mmt, +23% yoy) and wheat (6.04 mmt, or +105% yoy). In January alone, Ukraine exported 1.9 mmt of grain (nearly flat yoy), with corn accounting for four-fifths of the total.



Meanwhile, the Ministry said it limited wheat exports, as Ukraine already sold abroad 99% of its presumed limit for the marketing year (which the Ministry set at 6.1 mmt). Agrarian Ministry reported it reached an agreement with traders that they would export only wheat bought from the Agrarian Fund.



Alexander Paraschiy: The export outlook for 2012/13 presented by the ministry suggests Ukraine will import only 6.95 mmt over the next five months through June 2013, or 33% less yoy. Total exports in the 1H13 calendar year would be 3.4 mmt smaller yoy and 5.5 mmt smaller h-o-h (or about USD 1.4 bln) – yet another reason for the expected worsening of Ukraine’s C/A deficit in the coming months.



The export limitations will not harm the full-year performance of grain trader Kernel (KER PW), as the company (as well as the market) was well-prepared for them. Kernel raised grain trading operations 58% yoy and throughput of its Ukrainian port terminals by 105% yoy in 6M12/13.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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