Ukraine goods trade surplus narrows to USD 620 mln in August

Ukraine goods trade surplus narrows to USD 620 mln in August



16 жовтня 2015 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s goods trade surplus reached USD 620 mln in 8M15 compared to a USD 938 mln surplus in the same year-ago period, according to an Ukrstat report on Oct. 15. The result was far worse than the USD 1.4 bln surplus reported for 7M15 because it reflected an adjustment for Russian natural gas imports for February-June, which was not included in official statistics previously. Recall as of February, Ukraine’s official statistics did not account for gas imports from Russia as UkrStat failed to receive excat data from Naftogaz. Ukraine imported 2.8 bcm of gas from Russia in February-June 2015 and the data finally was included at the end of August.

Overall, the general trend remained almost unchanged as goods exports fell 33.9% yoy in 8M15 (compared to -34.8% yoy in 7M15), owing to minerals (-53.7%), metals (-40.3%), and machinery (-36.6%). Exports to CIS countries plunged 52.6% yoy and to the EU by 32.5% yoy.

At the same time, goods imports improved somewhat on the back of the gas imports adjustment as the declining trend slowed to -33.9% yoy for 8M15 compared to -37.8% yoy for 7M15. The biggest drops were reflected in machinery (-36.2%), chemicals (-28.7%) and energy imports (-24.9%). For 8M15, non-energy goods imports fell 37.2% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: We expected the trade balance adjustment for the Russian natural gas data, though it was not clear just when the correction would occur. Net of this adjustment, the general tendencies remain almost unchanged with both exports and imports still contracting in the double digits. Against this backdrop, we are keeping our trade balance forecast unchanged at a USD 1.9 bln surplus for 2015 (according to UkrStat methodology).

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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