Naftogaz restarts natural gas imports from Russia

Russian gas monopoly Gazprom restarted natural gas supplies to Ukraine after it received a USD 234 mln prepayment, CEO Alexey Miller told journalists, as reported by the Interfax news agency on Oct. 12. Ukraine has ordered 114 mcm in daily deliveries of gas from Russia, Miller said, and Russia is fulfilling it thoroughly. Ukraine’s Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn confirmed this information, stating that Ukraine is planning to boost its gas stockpiles to 18 bcm in the coming 30 days, from 15.8 bcm currently.

Recall, Ukraine stopped importing natural gas from Russia as of July, as it considered the Russia’s proposed price for 3Q15, USD 247/tcm, to be groundless. On Sept. 25, the Russian and Ukrainian sides, with the mediation of the EU, managed to agree on the renewal of gas supplies for 4Q15. The price that Gazprom offered for the quarter remains unclear, ranging between USD 232/tcm, as announced by EU Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, and USD 227/tcm, as implied by the amount of the discount offered by the Russian government.

Alexander Paraschiy: The restart of gas imports from Russia, as well as Gazprom fulfilling Naftogaz’s purchase orders, will allow Ukraine to get smoothly through the just-started heating season. Yesterday’s gas stockpiles in Ukraine, 15.81 bcm, were lower than last year’s amount at this date by 6%, though last year’s stockpiles as of mid-October were at the season’s peak. If Ukraine fulfills its plan to accumulate 18 bcm by mid-November, its stockpiles would be 17% higher yoy, which would be a clear indicator of better preparedness for the heating season.

The value of Naftogaz’s prepayment for Russian gas looks like the best indicator for the average gas price that Ukraine will pay to Russia in 4Q15. Based on the straightforward assumption that Naftogaz has ordered a rounded volume of gas from Gazprom - or 1 bcm - we conclude that Naftogaz is estimating the price of Russian gas at USD 234/tcm.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал