Ukraine gross foreign reserves rise 3.0% in May

Ukraine gross foreign reserves rise 3.0% in May



4 червня 2015 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s gross international reserves rose 3.0% m/m, or USD 287 mln, to USD 9.9 bln as of end-May, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported on June 3, citing statistics from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). This level corresponds to 2.1 months of future imports. The main growth factor was a USD 1.0 bln Eurobond placement under U.S. guarantees. It was partially offset by USD 758 mln in debt redemptions, as well as debt servicing costs. Importantly, the net sale of foreign currency by individuals remained positive in May (USD 177 mln). On the other hand, the NBU continued its policy of supporting Naftogaz at the expense of gross reserves, selling the gas importer USD 100 mln in May.

Alexander Paraschiy: The May gross reserves results are in line with our expectations. The USD 1 bln in Eurobonds were announced a month ago and the redemption of USD 418 mln in internal state bonds in U.S. dollars, as well as debt servicing costs, were scheduled ahead of time and foreseen.

At the same time, future gross reserves trends are uncertain as they depend on lending from the IMF and EU, which in turn are conditional on the completion of the Ukrainian government’s talks on debt restructuring with private creditors. Hypothetically, USD 1.67 bln should arrive from the IMF in June, as well as EUR 600 mln from EU. However, in light of the stalled negotiations on the debt operation, these payments very likely will be delayed. Still we are continuing to assume ongoing IMF cooperation throughout the year, and thus we are keeping our gross international reserves forecast unchanged at USD 11.5 bln (2.4 months of future imports) as of end-2015, excluding the potential effect of the debt operation.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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