Ukraine Finance Ministry anticipates 5.5% GDP decline in 2015

Ukraine Finance Ministry anticipates 5.5% GDP decline in 2015



30 квітня 2015 года
Конкорд Капитал

Natalie Jaresko, the Finance Minister of Ukraine, anticipates a 5.5% GDP decline and 30% inflation in 2015, according to her speech at the International Conference In Support of Ukraine, the UNIAN news agency reported on April 28. On April 25, the Head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valeriia Gontareva revealed the bank’s estimate of a 7.5% GDP decline in 2015. According to the NBU monetary review, it estimates a 15.0% GDP decline in 1Q15.

Alexander Paraschiy: It is clear that the economy will show a mid-teens decline rate in 1H15 due to a high statistical base (a year ago eastern Donbas was still producing commodities for Ukraine). However, projections for 2015 are somewhat complicated due to the poor vision of potential 2H15 developments. On the one side, we anticipate that Ukrainian producers will finally start benefitting from the devaluation effect. Already some western oblasts of Ukraine are demonstrating growth in industrial output. On the other side, we see a sliding economic activity due to declined trading with Russia. Also broken economic ties with eastern Donbas have taken its toll.

To put it differently, if no extra shocks arrive to the country, and Ukrainian businesses are able to expand aggressively in the EU markets, we have all chances to fall only by 5-6% as the Finance Ministry and the IMF have projected. Otherwise the NBU estimate will be closer to reality. For the moment we maintain our projection of a 5.7% GDP decline in 2015, thus remaining closer to the government’s optimists.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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