Ukraine international reserves surge to USD 10 bln on IMF support

Ukraine international reserves surge to USD 10 bln on IMF support



7 квітня 2015 года
Конкорд Капитал

The gross international reserves of Ukraine surged USD 4.3 bln in March up to USD 9.97 bln, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) report on April 6. The IMF wire (USD 4.87 bln) to the government was the main reason for the increase. Also USD 581mln of foreign currency purchases at the ForEx as well as a CAD 200 mln loan to the government contributed to gross reserves expansion.

At the same time, interventions at the ForEx (USD 373 mln, including USD 281 mln for the needs of Naftogaz) as well as a USD 907 mln in foreign currency loan redemption and servicing (including a USD 222 mln repayment to the IMF and about USD 503 mln repayment of domestic Eurobonds) undermined gross reserves growth.

Alexander Paraschiy: Gross international reserves were only slightly worse than we had expected. Firstly, the IMF wire appeared to be somewhat less than the projected USD 5.0 bln due to a weaker SDR exchange rate. Secondly, continued ForEx interventions burned solid part of foreign currency the NBU had obtained throughout the month.

Over the upcoming months, we anticipate a relatively minor gross reserves contraction. On the one side, we see a USD 500-700 mln monthly use for redemption and servicing of state debt; on the other, we expect USD 1.0 bln arriving from U.S.-guaranteed Eurobonds placement and at least EUR 250 mln in loans from the EU.

With continued ForEx interventions for the sake of Naftogaz support, we expect the gross international reserves to be above USD 9 bln by the end of June. Assuming the cooperation with the IMF continues in 2H15, we expect USD 11.5 bln gross reserves by the end of the year.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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