Economic activity: Recession lengthens, deepens

Economic activity: Recession lengthens, deepens



20 лютого 2015 года
ICU

Because the Minsk 2 ceasefire agreement appears to have failed (or was just tactical manoeuvring by both sides), we expect prolonged Kremlin aggression towards Ukraine in the economic, information and military spheres. Also, as the restructuring of Ukraine's economy by government authorities depends on these factors, we prudently expect the economic recession to lengthen and deepen. A standoff between Ukraine's army and pro-Kremlin militants is included in our base-case scenario. The recent disappointing statistical data on key sector economic growth in January 2015 reinforces our pessimism. As industrial production and cargo transportation have hit historical lows, resulting in a 6.7% contraction in real GDP in 2014, we project more a severe decrease of 7.6% in 2015, then flat growth in 2016. Only in 2017 do we expect a recovery of near 3% YoY.

Источник: ICU

Другая макроэкономика от ICU


Компании

все компании