Ukraine finance minister seeks USD 10.8 bln from IMF in 2015

Ukraine finance minister seeks USD 10.8 bln from IMF in 2015



17 лютого 2015 года
Конкорд Капитал

Finance Minister of Ukraine Natalie Jaresko said on Feb. 16 that she is seeking USD 10.8 bln in support from the IMF in 2015. “We did not discuss with the IMF the sum of the wire so far,” she told a briefing. ”Our position was to convince them that in 2015 that part of the loan should be as large as possible. As we see from other IMF programs, the sum could be up to 60% of the total sum of the loan, or 60% of USD 17.5 bln. That’s approximately USD 10.8 bln. It can be hardly more than that in the program’s first year.”



Alexander Paraschiy: A USD 10.8 bln loan from the IMF would be substantial support that would cover the scheduled repayments of all sovereign liabilities (nearly USD 9 bln, including debt servicing costs). However, the IMF money won’t be enough to support macro stability in Ukraine this year, e.g. for defending the national currency. We see the IMF support more as a psychological factor while it is much more important what kind of extra donor support will arrive this year to offer some indication of where the hryvnia might be by the year end.



The key risk for Jaresko’s ambitious fund-raising plans is that the IMF is only making payments to Ukraine in exchange for deliveries of assumed commitments (reforms). And the Ukrainian government has demonstrated a propensity for dragging its feet in this sphere. For instance, in 2014, Ukraine received only USD 4.6 bln out of USD 7.5 bln that had been scheduled. If the government does not accelerate on its reforms path, there is the risk that the first IMF tranche this year (about USD 4.8 bln, we estimate, which might come within one month) could be the last.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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