NBU expects more IMF support, avoids commenting on UAH exchange rate

NBU expects more IMF support, avoids commenting on UAH exchange rate



22 грудня 2014 года
Конкорд Капитал

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) anticipates that the IMF will increase financial support to Ukraine by USD 15 bln, Deputy Head Oleksandr Pysaruk told a Dec. 19 briefing. “If everything goes as we plan, we might increase financial support from the IMF,” he said. “The sum of USD 15 bln was already voiced and we hope that it will be possible till the end of February.” The initial standby loan program approved in April 2014 presumed USD 17 bln support for Ukraine for two years.



The NBU will not make any forecasts on the 2015 hryvnia exchange rate, Pysaruk also said. “Firstly, the hryvnia exchange rate is not the key parameter of monetary policy. Period. Secondly, we do not give forecasts of the exchange rate for the next year. The key parameter of monetary policy is inflation. We are discussing this indicator with the Finance Ministry and this number will be released,” he said. Three days before, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk mentioned that the Cabinet is waiting for the hryvnia exchange rate forecast from the NBU to use for budget planning.



Alexander Paraschiy: It’s no surprise that the NBU won’t commit to a hryvnia exchange rate for 2015. Firstly, when the NBU is forced to cover the fiscal gap with hryvnia printing, any commitments on the exchange rate are unreliable. Secondly, since the NBU is trying to stick to a currency free float regime, external trade and market conditions should define the national currency’s value, not the central bank.



If the IMF indeed increases support by USD 15 bln on top of the already offered funds, we don’t anticipate any significant hryvnia volatility in 2015. But the key instruments in securing such funds are realistic spending plans and a narrow fiscal deficit, which are beyond the NBU’s control.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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