Ukraine state debt contracts by USD 1.3 bln in October

Ukraine state debt contracts by USD 1.3 bln in October



27 листопада 2014 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s state debt fell 1.8% m/m (USD 1.3 bln) to USD 73.0 bln in October, according to Finance Ministry data released on Nov. 27. External debt declined 4.6% (USD 1.9 bln) while internal debt grew 1.8% (USD 0.6 bln) through the month. The share of external debt declined to 54.6% from 56.2% in the prior month.



Alexander Paraschiy: The reported amount of state debt implies it accounts for about 63% of Ukraine’s GDP, which is 1pp less than a month before. A USD 1.6 bln Eurobond payment from Naftogaz and a USD 235 mln redemption of IMF debt were the main reasons for the external debt decline. Internal debt increased in October on the back of a UAH 11.2 bln state bonds placement for the sake of budget deficit funding. At the same time, the Finance Ministry paid back UAH 3.8 bln in internal liabilities through the month.



Through November-December, the state debt is expected to continue growing, primarily on the back of a new wave of hryvnia devaluation and new internal state bonds placements for deficit financing. At the same time, we see poor chances for a USD 2.8 bln wire from the IMF by the end of December, which was previously expected to be settled in 2014.



Against this backdrop, we anticipate state debt (including state guarantees) breaking the UAH 1 trillion level, which will be near 67% of GDP by the end of the year. The authorities have recognized this trend and plan to raise the state debt limit by UAH 161 bln to reflect the new reality (now being capped at UAH 807 bln, excluding guarantees), according to the Interfax-Ukrayina news agency.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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