Economics: 3Q real GDP ahead of expectations

Economics: 3Q real GDP ahead of expectations



31 жовтня 2014 года
ICU

As the war ravaged, events escalated in July-August and then subsided on a tenuous ceasefire, expectations leaned toward a significant contraction of GDP in 2H. Following a nearly 3% decline in 1H, it was expected that at least 10% decline would occur in 2H to yield a 6.5% decrease (as projected by IMF) for the entire year. With this in mind, the third quarter real GDP decline was projected at about 10%. Thankfully, however, official statistics revealed a much smaller-than-expected decline. This data reported as such could indicate that the government is trying to navigate the economy through economic crises both domestically and in neighboring countries, mainly to avert breaching the 60% of GDP loan covenant embedded in the UD$3bn Russian eurobond contract. Should a covenant violation occur, the Kremlin could take severe action.

Источник: ICU

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