Ukraine budget revenue drops 9.7% yoy in September

Ukraine budget revenue drops 9.7% yoy in September



2 жовтня 2014 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s state budget revenue dropped 9.7% in September after 17.2% yoy growth in the prior month, according to a State Treasury report released on Oct. 1. For 9M14, budget revenue reached UAH 267.2 bln, which is still 6.6% more than a year ago. Despite the improvement, state revenue still fell short of the 2014 budget plan by UAH 20.1 bln, according to the Treasury. VAT cash reimbursement for exporters was UAH 4.5 bln in September, which is 24.2% less than a year ago (UAH 34.1 bln for 9M14, which is 20.5% less yoy). The Treasury didn’t float new VAT bonds in September.



Alexander Paraschiy: The September result is disappointing since the August budget amendments approved by parliament were intended to compensate any revenue shortfall. The increased royalty on hydrocarbon/iron ore extraction and new income taxes should have offset the high statistical base effect. It’s pointed out that NBU support artificially inflated September 2013 revenue to create a high statistical base. Indeed, net of the NBU support, collections increased 6.3% yoy in September 2014, though that offers little consolation.



In light of such results, fiscal prospects again look rather murky. Budget revenue will continue to be volatile. To meet the outlined budget revenue target (UAH 377.8 bln), state collections should increase 25% in 4Q14, which is unrealistic under the current economic conditions. Any optimism after the upsurge in August collections was premature and very likely, the state revenue shortfall will be at least UAH 20 bln for 2014. Nevertheless, we do not expect the authorities to violate its IMF commitment of maintaining the central budget deficit at UAH 63.7 billion, even as more arrears are accumulated.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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