Ukraine monetary base falls 2.1% m/m in August

Ukraine monetary base falls 2.1% m/m in August



17 вересня 2014 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s monetary base fell 2.1% m/m in August (11.2% YTD) after a 0.6% m/m drop in July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on Sept. 16. Money supply finally started growing, adding 2.9% m/m in August (+7.0% YTD) compared to a 0.4% m/m drop in July. The NBU purchased UAH 44.8 bln in state bonds in August from natural gas transit and production company Naftogaz (NAFTO), which gained paper in August amounting to UAH 63.3 bln as the state’s contribution to its equity.



Alexander Paraschiy: The gross international reserves decline of USD 238 mln in August was the key reason for monetary base contraction. Surprisingly, the NBU’s large bonds purchase did not prevent the monetary base from contracting, which probably means that the issued money was deposited in the accounts of state institutions without entering the economy. The trend in declining money aggregates is unlikely to continue since we expect gross reserves will remain almost flat in September and will start growing further on, while the budget will need NBU support. Against this backdrop, we project the monetary base growing 19.8% YTD in 2014, which is below the 21% YTD growth target outlined at the monetary policy principles adopted by the NBU.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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