Ukraine national bank head expects 9% GDP decline in 2014

Ukraine national bank head expects 9% GDP decline in 2014



15 вересня 2014 года
Конкорд Капитал

National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Head Valeriia Gontareva told the Yalta European Strategy summit on Sept. 12 that she expects Ukraine’s 2014 GDP will decline between 9-10 percent. She said she also anticipates a 35% decline in exports to Russia in 2014 and a 40% decline in 2015. At the same time, hryvnia devaluation and the subsequent exports growth to the EU by 14% has caused the current account balance to improve through August, prior to the Russian occupation of the Donbas region. Ukraine’s trade balance has worsened this year, though the IMF stand-by program has helped to offset declines, she said. The IMF projects a 6.5% GDP decline in 2014.



Alexander Paraschiy: Gontareva’s projections are disturbing. A 9 percent decline implies more than a 15% GDP contraction in 2H14, which would require a slump of more than 20% in industrial output. Given the devastation in the east, we cannot rule out a 20% industrial output decline starting from August after a 12.1% yoy drop in July. We estimate a 7.1% yoy GDP decline in 2014 but leave some room for a revision if the warfare escalates.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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