Ukraine gross foreign reserves decline USD 0.2 bln in August

Ukraine gross foreign reserves decline USD 0.2 bln in August



8 вересня 2014 года
Конкорд Капитал

The gross international reserves of Ukraine’s central bank declined USD 238 mln in August to USD 15.8 bln, or 2.4 months of future imports, the bank reported on Sept. 5.



Alexander Paraschiy: With no debt secured or redeemed in August, the only reason for the change in gross reserves was central bank interventions. The decline was very modest and comes as a pleasant surprise. In light of significant ForEx volatility (UAH 12.3/USD to UAH 14.1/USD during the month), only USD 0.2 bln in interventions is a rather minor expense.



In September, we anticipate gross reserves to be almost unchanged as (1) a USD 1.4 bln wire and (2) a USD 500 mln loan from the World Bank should offset a USD 1.6 bln redemption of Naftogaz Eurobonds, coupled with a near USD 190 mln repayment to the IMF. Further on, we expect gross reserves to start growing on the back of more external financial support, more Eurobond placements (USD 2 bln expected, according to the IMF) and a USD 2.8 bln wire from the IMF expected by the end of December. All in all, we expect gross reserves to reach USD 18.5 bln (2.8 months of imports) by the end-2014, unless the Eurobond placement fails.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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