Ukraine budget revenue falls 7.2% yoy in June

Ukraine budget revenue falls 7.2% yoy in June



4 липня 2014 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s state budget revenue fell 7.2% yoy after a 2.7% yoy increase the prior month, according to a state Treasury report released on July 2. For 1H14, budget revenue reached UAH 175.8 bln, which is 8.2% more than the same year ago period. VAT reimbursement for exporters was reported at UAH 2.4 bln in June, which is 37.4% less than a year ago.



Alexander Paraschiy: The situation with state finances is getting worse. As soon as the NBU stopped wiring advances to the Finance Ministry (we believe that began happening in June), state collections started falling fast. As usual, the provisional data is scarce for details but in light of cuts to VAT reimbursement, we are led to conclude that tax collections are much lower than initially expected.



The authorities most likely will negotiate with the IMF an increase in its deficit ceiling because if this tendency continues (due to the military conflict in the eastern regions), the state budget shortfall might exceed UAH 30 bln by the year end. That means that the effective fiscal gap will be 1.5x higher than planned, or more than 6% of GDP instead of 4.2% of GDP planned initially.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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