Ukraine May CPI speeds up to 3.8% m/m

Ukraine May CPI speeds up to 3.8% m/m



10 червня 2014 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine's consumer prices continued accelerating as the May CPI rose 3.8% m/m (+10.8% yoy) vs. 3.3% m/m (+6.8% yoy) in the prior month, according to state statistics released on June 6. Utilities increased the most (+12.8% m/m) on the back of a natural gas price hike of more than 50 percent for the population. All other key CPI components (except for education) were also on the rise as food and transportation costs each grew 3.6% m/m, and healthcare prices grew 3.1% m/m.



Alexander Paraschiy: Though gas costs increased the fastest in May, it was food price growth that was the biggest factor in May. To some extent, the increase in grain prices in recent months could be blamed. Upon closer examination of the CPI structure however, we see the main increases were in the products that depend heavily on transportation costs, such as fruits, vegetables, dairy, as well as fish. In other words, we believe it’s the dominating effect of hryvnia devaluation (through increased fuel prices) that is the key factor behind the current inflation.



Against this backdrop, we can hardly avoid two-digit inflation this year, even if CPI slows down from June (we expect such a slowdown to happen). Thus, we are revising our 2014 CPI estimate to 10.3% yoy (16.3% ytd) from 7.1% yoy (12.7% ytd) we estimated previously.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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