State budget in May: Primary balance improves

State budget in May: Primary balance improves



1 липня 2015 года
ICU

The latest state budget for January-May showed indicates that there could be a primary surplus for most of this year. The trailing 12-month data shows that the consolidated budget balance was a negative UAH44.7bn. Interest expenditures amounted to UAH66.6bn, up 76.5% year-on-year. Effectively, the primary surplus was at UAH21.9bn, or 1.3% of GDP, up sharply from the previous month's 0.7% of GDP. The last time a primary surplus at this level was observed from historical data was in January 2006 (see chart below). The main question is whether PM Yatsenyuk's government will be able to preserve the surplus amidst political pressure over this year, particularly as populist parties are already lobbying to spend it. With regional elections scheduled this October, incumbents will probably ask the government for increased social benefits to appeal to voters. This being said, we reiterate our view that this year will end at a flat primary balance (in terms of the consolidated budget).

Источник: ICU

Другая макроэкономика от ICU


Компании

все компании