UAH stable, external markets spell more pressure on the hryvnia

UAH stable, external markets spell more pressure on the hryvnia



1 грудня 2014 года
ICU

Last Friday, the domestic FX market remained tightly managed by authorities as Bloomberg reported the rate at 15.0190/USD, up from Thursday. Trade volume was US$297m, implying a ratio of FX turnover to merchandise trade (exports plus imports ) of 76% , down from 100% seen this June. This means that FX market activity lags behind the underlying foreign trade activity and likely suggests that exporters are postponing selling FX into the domestic market. Meanwhile, external markets are turning negative to the hryvnia. The Russian ruble declined 1.82% to 49.4670/USD in reaction to the crude oil price decline after OPEC's decision to reject production cuts. The Russian economy appears highly vulnerable to the recent oil market events, pushing the ruble lower. In our view, although the ruble is oversold, it is still vulnerable to the negative clout that it attracted recently. Oil and the ruble may calm down around February-March, depending on the US economy. If the US economy continues to report positive data on employment, the ruble could come under even more pressure. The hryvnia remains vulnerable to global developments, as it has been in the past.

Источник: ICU

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