Hryvnia inches up, while global FX markets mixed

Hryvnia inches up, while global FX markets mixed



26 листопада 2014 года
ICU

The UAH increased a marginal 0.35% (in weighted average terms) on US$238m in trading yesterday. Compared with the wild daily swings seen in September-October, the small changes exemplify the unwritten agreement between the NBU and the top 40 banks which stipulates a low volatility environment to maintain the FX rate below 16/USD. The Russian ruble's 2.69% loss yesterday was caused by a failed attempt of the non-OPEC nations to agree on crude oil price action. As OPEC nations will gather tomorrow, yesterday's market behavior suggests that they will fail to establish a crude oil price floor, i.e. by setting production cuts. Brent crude fell 1.45% yesterday. The development of oil and rubles has been negative over the short-term for the hryvnia, but could be positive over the mid- and long-term. On the other hand, yesterday's developments with the US dollar were positive short-term but negative mid- and long-term. While adjusted 3Q real GDP was better than previously thought, US consumer sentiment came in below expectations. As consumer sentiment is seen as a bellwether and GDP data is historical, the dollar sold off yesterday. The USD trade weighted index (Bloomberg: DXY) was down 0.26%, which bolstered other global currencies. The hryvnia 's real trade weighted index rose 0.70% because of the weak ruble.

Источник: ICU

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