FX: UAH steady as US dollar rises

FX: UAH steady as US dollar rises



18 листопада 2014 года
ICU

NBU officials convened with the heads of the top 40 banks to discuss the ongoing situation at the FX market. They seek a mutual agreement to hold further series of FX auctions to sell small volumes of US dollars to the market to discover a 'balanced' exchange rate to fulfill some of the unsatisfied demand. We believe the hryvnia is currently undervalued by 16% on a real trade weighted basis (for details, please see Chart 15 on page 7). Future developments depend on inflation: if CPI and PPI outperform the expected trajectory that peaks in 1Q15 and then subsides to 10-12% over the rest of next year, then devaluation pressure should remain. Conversely, if inflation performs below expectations, then devaluation expectations should subside significantly.

Источник: ICU

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