Ukraine goods trade surplus amounts to 250 mln in 11M15

Ukraine goods trade surplus amounts to 250 mln in 11M15



18 січня 2016 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s trade surplus on goods, calculated based on UkrStat methodology, narrowed to USD 250 mln in 11M15 from USD 381 mln in 10M15. The surplus increased from USD 145 mln in 11M14.

In 11M15, goods exports fell 30.9% yoy on the back of sliding minerals (-50.4% yoy), metals (-38.4% yoy), and machinery (-32.7% yoy). Goods imports declined 31.2% yoy due to metals (-40.3% yoy), machinery (-31.0% yoy), chemicals (-26.2% yoy) and energy (-25.1% yoy).

Exports to the CIS plunged 49.5% yoy and exports to the EU fell 26.0% yoy in 11M15. Non-energy imports contracted 33.3% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: The trend on the trade surplus narrowing is in line with our estimates. The prospects for goods exports are worsening while imports will be getting stronger. We also estimate agricultural exports have declined in December, as exporters were anticipating a better tax regime since January. Against this backdrop, we are keeping our trade balance estimate (according to UkrStat methodology) at near zero levels (USD 137 mln surplus) for 2015.

For this year, we anticipate a continued tendency on goods imports strengthening amid sluggish exports. Imports will be benefiting from the stabilized economic situation and additional import duties that were abolished as of Jan. 1, 2016. Exports will keep suffering on sliding resource prices and Russian aggression. We project a USD 2.5 bln trade deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) in 2016.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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