FX markets largely flat on the eve of crucial US data

Макроэкономика 06.11.2015 Tomorrow's highly anticipated release of the US non-farm payroll jobs data will determine if the Fed will increase its rate. Our baseline scenario assumes that the Fed will raise the rate this December, translating into a stronger USD dollar as measured by the DXY index by the end of this year and early next year. The Fed's rate increases are likely to be limited, and by early 2016 the associated upward pressure on the USD to appreciate would produce a currency that would likely reverse the market trend from appreciation to devaluation. Under this scenario, market participants could build their positions accordingly (i.e. betting that the Fed would subsequently revert to easing monetary conditions).