Ukraine halves coal production in 4M15

Ukraine halves coal production in 4M15



29 травня 2015 года
Конкорд Капитал

Output at Ukrainian coal mines fell 54% yoy to 12.7 mmt in 4M15, according to statistical data disclosed by Energobiznes. Steam coal mining plunged 50% yoy to 10.07 mmt, including anthracite coal of 1.05 mmt (-90% yoy) and bituminous coal of 9.02 mmt (-7% yoy). In April, total coal mining dropped 51% yoy to 3.33 mmt, including a 49% yoy decrease in steam coal to 2.61 mmt.

The mines of Ukraine’s leading energy holding DTEK (DTEKUA) reduced their coal production 37% yoy to 8.47 mmt in 4M15. The holding’s share of Ukraine’s total steam coal production was 67% and its share of anthracite coal was 99%.

Alexander Paraschiy: The statistics of Ukraine’s coal industry account only for the mines that are located on the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government (half of the total mines in Ukraine), plus three large mines belonging to DTEK, which are on the occupied zone. Smaller coal producers located on terrorist-controlled Donbas may also be operating but are not reporting their numbers.

In any case, the weak coal mining statistics indicate potential problems for entire Ukraine’s energy sector. Coal stockpiles at Ukrainian thermal power plants (TPPs), responsible for about 40% of electricity output in Ukraine, were 0.95 mmt as of May 26, or 73% smaller yoy.

Combined with weak coal production stats, this implies a high risk that Ukrainian TPPs won’t be able to accumulate enough coal to go smoothly through the next winter season, when their contribution to Ukraine’s power balance becomes critical.

At this stage, it looks like the only way to prevent power shortages in the winter season (unless Ukraine regains complete control over Donbas soon) is to radically increase coal imports. Thus far, Ukrainian TPPs have insufficient liquidity to import coal.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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