Ukraine 1Q15 GDP plunges 17.6%

Ukraine 1Q15 GDP plunges 17.6%



18 травня 2015 года
Конкорд Капитал

Ukraine’s GDP plunged 17.6% yoy in the first quarter, according to a State Statistics Service (UkrStat) provisional estimate released on May 15. Previously, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimated a 15.0% yoy GDP decline in 1Q15.

The Ukrainain government projects a 5.5% GDP decline in 2015. At the same time, the NBU projects a 7.5% yoy GDP decline for 2015.

Alexander Paraschiy: UkrStat’s GDP estimate is much worse than had been anticipated by the market and economists. It means that 2015 GDP will fall by at least 6.5%, even if the economy significantly improves in 2H15. Since the preliminary GDP data for 1Q15 doesn’t offer a sectoral breakdown, we do not have a clear picture of what caused the decline below estimates.

The second half of the year remains a big uncertainty and the only thing we know for sure is that declining rates starting from July will drop to single digits due to the low statistical base. Against this backdrop, we can just say that 2015 GDP will fall in the range of 6.5-7.0%, assuming the economy stabilizes in 2H15. A more accurate forecast is possible in mid-June after the final GDP 1Q15 statistics are released.

Источник: Конкорд Капитал

Аналитик: Александр Паращий
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