Bondholders' portfolio volatility

9 февраля 2016 года

Over the last few weeks, recent large bond offerings by the MoF significantly changed the bondholders' structure of domestic bonds as the NBU's share fell to 72.35% from above 77% at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the banks' share increased significantly on three occasions: up UAH11.9bn on 22 January, up UAH14.97bn on 1 February, and up UAH11.32bn last Friday. As the result, the banks' portfolio rose to UAH113.89bn, with its share rising to 21.13% from about 16% at the beginning of the year. The other residents' portfolio decreased their share in government bonds outstanding since the beginning of the year to 2.13%, but with the last week's issue of bonds their share was up to 2.20%.

Investment implications: The banks' portfolio rose due to the following: (1) significant bond purchases at primary auctions as the MoF sold US$0.92bn of FX-denominated bonds this year, and (2) a significant increase of state-owned banks' share capital using government bonds, as approved by a government resolution at the end of January. Also, FX-denominated bonds outstanding slightly rose (the MoF repaid only US$0.33bn in USD-denominated bond redemptions) and a slight weakening of the hryvnia caused the portfolios to rise.

Источник: ICU

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