New opinion poll shows that reforms have damaged incumbents' approval ratings



21 липня 2015 года
ICU

A newly published results of opinion poll by KIIS, a respected Kyiv-based pollster, (link, in Ukrainian) shows that President Poroshenko's bloc ranking are fairly stable, while Julia Tymoshenko's Batkivschyna has extended spectacular gains. PM Yatsenyuk's party, the People's Front, has been a key victim of the popular dissatisfaction with the economic hardships brought by the economic crisis arising from Russia's war on Ukraine in Donbass as well as the annexation of Crimea. Yatsenyuk's once prophetic claim, after being approved as Ukraine's next prime minister in early 2014, that his government would be sacrificed is now being realized, particularly as his party is receiving the brunt of the blame for the social pains resulting from the economic reforms. As the table below shows over the past year, Poroshenko's bloc approval ratings improved just less than 2ppts, staying at 23.5%, while Yatsenyuk's party has lost 19.4ppts of the support that it enjoyed during the parliamentary elections (see Table 1 and Chart 1 on page 3). Meanwhile, Tymoshenko's rhetoric and action in the parliament have strategically generated PR gains by pushing for populists laws like the one adopted just few weeks ago that provides compensation for households that borrowed FX-denominated funds. That law violates the IMF agreement and could lead to another financial crisis if signed into law. In reaction, Poroshenko's party and civil activists disavowed the law, declaring it to be a mere ploy promoted by populists. Currently, it is being reviewed by the parliament and will inevitably be diluted. The key political intrigue of this fall is likely to arrive after October's regional elections: if Tymoshenko's party retains its popular support, then Poroshenko's Party should respond somehow to the shifting political landscape. There could be a rapprochement between these two parties that lead in the polls and they will likely be the leaders this fall.

Источник: ICU

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