Astarta 2015 corn, sunflower yields increase, while soybean falls



5 жовтня 2015 года
Конкорд Капитал

Астарта (AST)


Ukraine’s integrated farming and food holding Astarta (AST PW) provided its update on its winter sowing campaign and oil crop harvest in its Oct. 2 press release. Following the completion of its 2015 harvest, Astarta reported an average yield of soybeans at 2.1 t/ha (vs. 2.2t/ha a year before) and for sunflower at over 2.8 t/ha (vs. 2.3 t/ha a year before). The total harvest of oil crops, thus, reached almost 200 kt, the company reported (implying about 28% yoy growth, we estimate).

The company also reported on its ongoing harvesting of corn, whose yield thus far has exceeded 8 t/ha (vs. last year’s final result of 6.4 t/ha), and sugar beets, whose yields are not yet comparable to the last season due to the early stage of its collection. In its winter sowing campaign, Astarta is going to cultivate 56 kha (+11% yoy), including 52 kha of winter wheat (+11% yoy) and over 3 kha of winter rye.

Alexander Paraschiy: With preliminary results on hand, we estimate Astarta will increase its total harvest of grains and oilseeds to about 800 kt (+18% yoy), even though its acreage under the crops decreased about 2% yoy. Better yields and a higher share of sunflower in its crop mix (its harvest increased 3.8x yoy, we estimate) will enable the company to report better financial results for its farming segments this year, we expect.

At the same time, Astarta’s operational performance could worsen in two of its most value-added segments – soybean processing and sugar production. Its soybean harvest seems to have dropped by about 3% yoy this season, which could be followed by sugar beets (on about a 23% yoy reduction in its own beets cultivation area). At the same time, the reported decline in Ukrainian sugar production (total sugar beet sowings in Ukraine fell 28% yoy this season, according to Astarta) will likely prompt the domestic sugar price to increase, which will be beneficial for Astarta. We already see evidence of that as during the last two weeks, domestic sugar prices increased more than 10% in dollar terms, according to the aaa-agro.com analytical agency. All in all, we expect Astarta’s full-year EBITDA will slightly improve in 2H15 and will be only slightly lower yoy in FY15 in EUR terms (vs. -22% yoy in 1H15).

Источник: Конкорд Капитал



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